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Stage 4 Lung Cancer Life Expectancy

7 Factors That Can Influence Survival Times

Questions about life expectancy are often the first ones asked when someone is diagnosed with stage 4 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This is the most advanced stage of the disease in which cancer has spread (metastasized) from the primary tumor to distant organs.

The median survival time for those with stage 4 lung cancer is around four months. That means that 50% of patients will still be alive four months after their diagnosis.

As distressing as this statistic may be, it is important to remember that stage 4 lung cancer has no set course. Many will live for months and even years longer than this.

Multiple factors can influence survival times, some of which (like smoking) are modifiable. Newer targeted therapies and immunotherapies are also helping people with stage 4 cancer live longer with fewer side effects and a better quality of life.

This article discusses stage 4 lung cancer life expectancy and what factors may influence the outcome of a diagnosis.

Verywell / Jessica Olah © Provided by Verywell Health Verywell / Jessica Olah Characteristics of Stage 4 Lung Cancers

Lung cancer is staged to classify the severity of the disease. The staging of NSCLC helps doctors choose the most appropriate course of treatment based on the likely outcome or prognosis.

The stage of lung cancer is determined using the TNM classification system, which categorizes the severity of the disease based on three conditions:

  • The size and extent of the primary tumor (T)
  • Whether nearby lymph nodes have cancer cells in them (N)
  • Whether distant metastasis has occurred (M)
  • With stage 4 lung cancer, all three of these conditions will have occurred. With that said, the extent of metastasis can vary along with the prognosis.

    For this reason, the 2018-released TNM classification system broke down stage 4 NSCLC into two substages:

  • Stage 4a lung cancer, in which cancer has spread within the chest to the opposite lung; or to the lining around the lungs or the heart; or to the fluid around the lungs or heart (malignant effusion)
  • Stage 4b lung cancer, in which cancer has spread to one or multiple places in one or more distant organs, such as the brain, adrenal gland, bone, liver, or distant lymph nodes
  • Stage 4 lung cancer is incurable. Treatments, therefore, are focused on slowing the progression of the disease, minimizing symptoms, and maintaining an optimal quality of life.

    Related:Common Sites of Lung Cancer Metastases

    Stage 4 Survival Statistics

    Stage 4 lung cancer life expectancy is typically gauged using five-year survival rates. These estimate the percentage of people who will live for at least five years following the initial diagnosis.

    Epidemiologists classify five-year survival rates in one of two ways.

    Survival Rates by TNM Stage

    The first approach is based on the TNM stage. Statistical survival times are matched to the stage of the disease.

    TNM Lung Cancer Stage Median Survival M1a 11.4 months M1b 11.4 months M1c 6.3 months

    By contrast, the one-year survival rate for stage 4 lung cancer was reported in one study to be between 15% and 19%. This means this portion of patients with metastatic disease lived for at least a year.

    Illustration by Hetal Rathod, Verywell © Provided by Verywell Health Illustration by Hetal Rathod, Verywell

    Survival Rates by Disease Extent

    A second method estimates survival rates based on the extent of cancer in the body. This is the approach used by the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. The SEER system classifies cancer in one of three broader categories:

  • Localized: Cancer limited to the lungs
  • Regional: Cancer that has spread to nearby lymph nodes or structures
  • Distant: Metastatic cancer
  • Under the SEER classification system, distant disease and stage 4 cancer are synonymous.

    The one drawback to the SEER approach is that stage 4a and 4b lung cancer are melded into one category. This generalized approach returns a much lower five-year survival estimate (5.8%). It also fails to reflect the wide variability in stage 4 survival rates, particularly in people with limited metastases.

    SEER Stage at Diagnosis Percent (%) Surviving Localized 61.2% Regional 33.5% Distant 7.0% Unstaged 9.9%

    Related:How Fast Does Lung Cancer Spread?

    Factors Influencing Survival Rates

    The variability in survival rates highlights one key reality about stage 4 lung cancer: no two people have the same disease. Arguably more than any other stage of the disease, stage 4 lung cancer survival is influenced by multiple factors. Some of these are fixed (non-modifiable) and others can be changed (modifiable).

    There are seven factors known to influence survival times in people with stage 4 NSCLC.

    Illustration by Emily Roberts, Verywell © Provided by Verywell Health Illustration by Emily Roberts, Verywell

    Age

    Older age is linked to poorer outcomes in people with lung cancer irrespective of their lung cancer stage. This is due to the fact that people over 70 are often in poorer general health and have immune systems that are less able to suppress tumor growth.

    Older age not only influences the progression of the disease but survival rates as well. If you are under age 50 at the time of your diagnosis, you are more likely to live for at least five years compared to someone 65 and older.

    Based on SEER data, the five-year survival rate for people with stage 4 lung cancer is 14.2% for those under 50. This drops to 5.6% for those 65 and over.

    Stage at Diagnosis Under 50 Ages 50-64 65 and Over Localized 86.7% 69.8% 56.9% Regional 51.3% 38.9% 29.9% Distant 14.2% 8.7% 5.6% Unstaged 38.4% 18.3% 7.1%

    Related:How Lung Cancer Is Treated in Older Adults

    Sex

    Male sex is independently associated with poorer outcomes in people with lung cancer in general. Men are not only more likely to get lung cancer than women but are more likely to die as a result of the disease. These factors contribute to the disparity in the overall five-year survival rate in women and men.

    Sex 5-Year Survival Rate Women 27% Men 19.2% Overall 22.9%

    Concerning stage 4 NSCLC, the five-year survival rates are 5.6% and 8.6% for men and women, respectively. Research suggests that men are at a genetic disadvantage. Compared to women, men are less likely to have "treatable" gene mutations—those that are responsive to newer targeted therapies used for stage 4 disease.

    Interestingly, men prescribed drugs like Keytruda (pembrolizumab) tend to have lower survival overall but higher overall progression-free survival (i.E., the length of time in which the condition does not worsen) than women.

    Related:How Lung Cancer Differs in Women and Men

    Performance Status

    People with stage 4 NSCLC tend to be symptomatic. This doesn't mean, however, that all people will be equally ill or disabled. There can be significant variations in the ability to function in everyday life, which doctors refer to as performance status (PS).

    There are several ways that PS is measured. The most common is called the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) PS Score, which rates PS on a scale of 0 to 5. Under the ECOG system, a score of 0 means that you are fully functional, while a score of 5 indicates death.

    Research suggests that around half of all people diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer will have "good" PS, defined as an ECOG score of 0 to 2. Almost without exception, people with a PS in this range will survive longer than those with a PS of 3 or 4.

    Using the ECOG PS Score, lung cancer survival rates and times (for all stages) break down as follows.

    Performance Status 5-Year Survival Rates Median Overall Survival 0 45.9% 51.5 months 1 18.7% 15.4 months 2 5.8% 6.7 months 3 0% 3.9 months 4 0% 2.4 months 5 Not applicable Not applicable

    Among people with stage 4 lung cancer, an ECOG score of 0 translates to no less than an 11-fold increase in six-month survival rates compared to an ECOG score of 4, according to a 2015 study published in PLoS One.

    Smoking Status

    It is never too late to stop smoking. Even among people with stage 4 lung cancer, quitting cigarettes before starting chemotherapy can increase survival time by as much as six months, according to research published in the Brazilian Journal of Pneumonology.

    With that said, the consequences of smoking cessation—namely, nicotine withdrawal—may outweigh the benefits in heavy smokers with poor performance status and advanced stage 4 disease.

    The decision to quit is ultimately a personal one, but something that should always be discussed prior to the start of cancer treatment.

    Related:10 Reasons to Stop Smoking After Getting Cancer

    Location and Type of Lung Cancer

    There are many different types and subtypes of NSCLC, some of which are more aggressive than others. The three most common types are:

  • Lung adenocarcinoma, the most common form of the disease that mainly develops in the outer edges of the lungs
  • Squamous cell lung carcinoma, accounts for 25% to 30% of lung cancer cases and develops mainly in the airways
  • Large cell lung carcinoma, an uncommon type of NSCLC that can develop anywhere in the lungs and tends to be more aggressive than other types
  • Research shows that the differences between these types influence survival rates. Moreover, the location of the tumor—whether in the airways (as with bronchioloalveolar adenocarcinoma) or in lung tissues themselves—can also have an impact on survivability.

    NSCLC Type 5-Year Survival Rate Lung adenocarcinoma 20.6% Squamous cell lung carcinoma 17.6% Large cell lung carcinoma 13.2%

    While research on each NSCLC type in stage 4 is limited, survival rates are generally lower than the reported overall five-year survival rates, consistent with previous data reported.

    Comorbidity

    Roughly three of every four people with advanced lung cancer have another chronic health condition, referred to as a comorbidity. Having one or more comorbidities not only complicates lung cancer treatment but significantly impacts life expectancy.

    Overall, some of the most common comorbidities in people with lung cancer include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, and congestive heart failure.

    Among people with stage 4 lung cancer specifically, there are two comorbidities that most directly influence survival times.

    Stage 4 NSCLC Comorbidity Reduction in Overall Survival Congestive heart failure -19%

    Cerebrovascular diseases (such as stroke,

    aneurysm, or vascular malformation)

    -27%

    Genetic Mutations

    The treatment of stage 4 NSCLC has evolved dramatically in recent years with the introduction of targeted therapies approved specifically for the treatment of metastatic lung cancer.

    Unlike traditional chemotherapy drugs, these medications don't attack all fast-replicating cells. Instead, they recognize and attack cancer cells with specific "treatable" mutations. Because of this, there is less collateral damage to normal cells and fewer side effects.

    Not everyone has these genetic mutations, but, if they do, the drugs can significantly improve survival times. The three most common mutations are:

    The effect of these drugs on survival times has been impressive. A 2019 study published in the Journal of Thoracic Oncology followed 110 people with stage 4 NSCLC from 2009 to 2017, each of whom was treated with Xalkori in first-line therapy along with chemotherapy drugs.

    According to the research, the median survival time for people treated with Xalkori was 6.8 years, meaning that 50% were still alive by that point in time. By contrast, only 2% of those not on the drug were still alive after five years.

    Similar results have been seen in people with EGFR or ROS1 mutations, although the effectiveness of treatment can vary considerably by the location of the metastases.

    Related:The Role of Genetic Testing With Lung Cancer

    Summary

    Stage 4 NSCLC is an advanced form of lung cancer in which cancer has spread from the lungs to distant organs or areas of the body. The median survival time for stage 4 lung cancer is about four months.

    Research shows that factors such as age, sex, smoking status, and type of cancer may influence survival rates. But overall, survival rates are improving due to advancements in treatment methods.

    A Word From Verywell

    Stage 4 lung cancer remains a serious diagnosis, but it is important to remember that it is not the same disease it was just 20 years ago. Survival rates are ever-increasing, and newer medications can now personalize treatment in ways that were once unheard of.

    Try not to let survival statistics overwhelm you. Instead, learn as much as you can about your specific cancer and the treatment options available to you.

    If you have any doubts about treatment recommendations, do not hesitate to seek a second opinion, ideally from a specialist in one of the 71 National Cancer Institute-designated treatment centers in the United States. Their practitioners are more likely to be on top of the current research and treatment strategies.

    Related:Top 10 Cancer Hospitals in the US


    'Rocky' Star Dolph Lundgren, 65, Reveals He's Been Battling Lung Cancer For 8 Years

    Dolph Lundgren © Provided by Hollywood Life Dolph Lundgren The actor revealed he's had lung cancer for years and speculated as to how it was caused.

    Iconic Rocky actor Dolph Lundgren revealed in a new interview that he's been battling lung cancer for eight years. In a new interview on In Depth with Graham Besinger, the 65-year-old actor opened up about his diagnosis, saying that it came in 2015, then went into remission. "In 2020, I was back in Sweden and I had some kind of acid reflux, I didn't know what it was so I did an MRI," he told Graham. "They found that there were a few more tumors around that area. They found one more tumor in the liver, so I was like aw s****, okay.

    The Expendables star then explained that was when he realized how serious the condition was. "At that point it started to hit me that this was something serious," he continued. "The surgeon called me and said it had grown, it was too big, it had grown to the size of a small lemon. I asked them how long do I have left, I think he said 2-3 years but I could tell in his voice he thought it was less. I thought that was it for sure."

    During the interview, Dolph also shared a clip from the hospital, even wearing a hospital gown. "It's the day after my surgery, they took out one tumor, then they took out another two they found and another three small ones," he told fans in the video. "Hopefully it's cleaned out, if it dies, it dies."

    Dolph is currently engaged to Emma Krokdal, 26, who shared during the interview when she realized it was "worse" than they thought. "His mouth got really sore, his hands got sore and he couldn't eat anything," she said. "That was a struggle, he was losing weight. We realized it was a lot worse than we thought, they started talking about tumors in the lung, stomach, spine, outside the kidneys."

    Dolph also floated a theory during the interview of why the cancer occurred. "I tried steroids back in the 80s, 90s," he admitted. "I don't know if that is something to do with the cancer, of course it struck me as it could have something to do with it. I thought about it, you always think you've made a mistake. I think maybe there is some connection between testosterone therapy and cancer."

    The famously buff actor said his steroid use was directly related to his work in the movies. "I was on steroids when I was younger, on and off for maybe ten years," he said. "Depending on the kind of movie I made." Despite the grim news, however, Dolph seems to have found a silver lining. "You just appreciate being lucky enough to be alive, and you appreciate every moment there is," he said.


    What Is The Life Expectancy For Esophageal Cancer?

    Esophageal cancer is a leading cause of cancer death around the world. Although survival rates are low, even with treatment, catching it in its early stages can improve overall esophageal cancer life expectancy.

    Esophageal cancer is the fifth most common gastrointestinal cancer in the United States. In 2023, an estimated 21,560 people received a diagnosis, the majority of which are men.

    There are two main subtypes of esophageal cancer — esophageal adenocarcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The majority of esophageal cancer diagnoses in the U.S. Are adenocarcinoma.

    Due to its lack of symptoms early on, doctors often diagnose esophageal cancer in its advanced stages. They tend to associate it with a poor prognosis and overall lower quality of life.

    This article looks at esophageal cancer life expectancy and the factors that affect survival rates.

    The American Cancer Society (ACS) uses a 5-year relative survival rate to assess the outlook for any given cancer.

    A 5-year relative survival rate compares people with the same type and stage of cancer to the overall population.

    For example, if the rate is 20%, it means people with that stage and type of cancer are 20% as likely as those without cancer to live for 5 years after their diagnosis.

    These statistics only provide a loose idea of what a person's outlook will be. To get an accurate and in-depth view of their outlook, a person should talk with a healthcare professional.

    The table below outlines the survival rates for esophageal cancer.

    One of the main reasons esophageal cancer has poor survival rates is that symptoms rarely appear in the early stages when survival rates are best.

    Diagnosis tends to occur in the advanced stages when swallowing becomes difficult and the individual notices significant weight and muscle mass loss.

    By this time, esophageal cancer may have already progressed past stage 3 and become "unresectable," or spread too far for complete surgical removal.

    The speed of metastasis, or how quickly cancer spreads to other areas of the body, is also a factor in esophageal cancer life expectancy.

    A 2018 study published in the journal Frontiers in Oncology indicates esophageal cancer can affect distant sites within 6 months despite aggressive treatment, and median survival after distant metastasis is 5 months.

    What about age and gender factors?

    Age and gender may impact an individual's risk of developing esophageal cancer. However, experts have not proven that these factors significantly influence survival rates after diagnosis.

    A 2022 nationwide and population-based cohort study published in the journal Annals of Surgical Oncology found men had a slightly lower survival rate compared to women, as did people diagnosed with the squamous cell carcinoma form of esophageal cancer.

    Another 2022 study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, found no statistical difference in survival rates between men and women.

    Research from 2021 published in the journal Annals of Surgical Oncology found an association between older age and minimally higher mortality rates overall, but people over the age of 75 years had an independent risk for short-term mortality from esophageal cancer.

    A smaller study on age, published in the journal Shanghai Chest in 2019, showed the opposite end of the spectrum, with a link found between being under the age of 45 years and superior survival rates in advanced esophageal cancer.

    What about lifestyle factors?

    A number of lifestyle factors — such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, and excess weight — may increase the risk of developing esophageal cancer.

    However, this does not necessarily mean that these behaviors impact the mortality rate.

    Of the lifestyle factors known to affect esophageal cancer risk, experts have found that smoking has an independent effect on mortality rates.

    A 2019 retrospective study in the journal Experimental and Therapeutic Medicine found an association between cigarette smoking and an increased risk of death during esophageal cancer treatment.

    The more years someone smoked, the higher their risk.

    In its early stages, esophageal cancer may have no noticeable symptoms.

    Late signs tend to stem from the area of the esophagus, which extends from the back of the throat down to the stomach.

    Late stage symptoms can include:

    The prognosis for esophageal cancer is poor overall, but early detection can improve outcomes.

    If a surgeon can resect the cancer by completely removing it, a person may have higher survival rates. Postoperative complications can be serious, however, and quality of life is not always improved.

    Care from a multidisciplinary team can help manage challenges related to feeding tubes, proper calorie intake, and physical frailty.

    Nurses, dieticians, and rehabilitation specialists can help maintain a person's quality of life with or without surgery.

    A cancer diagnosis can feel overwhelming, but learning more about the condition can help.

    The following are frequently asked questions about esophageal cancer life expectancy.

    Can you live a long life after esophageal cancer?

    Experts do not associate esophageal cancer with long-term survival.

    It may be possible for some people to live longer than average after diagnosis, especially if doctors find cancer early and the person is younger in age.

    What are the chances of surviving esophagus cancer?

    The 5-year survival rate for esophageal cancer is only 20%, but that does not mean survival beyond 5 years is impossible.

    Life expectancy will depend on when experts diagnose cancer, its underlying causes, and the patient's age.

    It is not possible to predict an individual's chances of surviving esophageal cancer. For most individuals, it is a fatal condition.

    Esophageal cancer life expectancy is short compared to many other cancers.

    It is a type of gastrointestinal cancer that spreads rapidly, and doctors rarely detect it in its early stages when survival rates are highest.

    Advanced age, being male, and smoking may also minimally increase esophageal cancer mortality rates.






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